r/politics America Nov 26 '22

Newsom Told the White House He Won’t Challenge Biden

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/26/gavin-newsom-wont-challenge-joe-biden-00070829
3.3k Upvotes

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589

u/ranchoparksteve Nov 26 '22

It does the Democrats no good to announce anything right now. The correct move is to sit back and watch the Trump/DeSantis circus play out.

162

u/AleroRatking Nov 26 '22

And not create a circus themselves by running against Biden

66

u/thecanty Nov 27 '22

Biden should step aside when the time comes and let someone else run. He did better than expected in the midterms, but I don't think he can beat DeSantis in 2024, and that's all that matters.If he steps aside he can go out on top. He doesn't seem like he'll be fit to be President in 2024. Aging is hard, but it's a part of life.

And the DNC should let the actual registered voters decide who the nominee is this time, rather than the party big wigs. I have a sneaking suspicion that if you let the candidate people are actually voting for be your nominee you have a better chance at winning an election. Radical, I know, but I say we give it a shot.

46

u/JaesopPop Nov 27 '22

It’s probably not a good idea to give up the incumbency advantage. No democrat has lost as the incumbent since Jimmy C 40 years ago

17

u/x_kwyjibo_x Nov 27 '22

That’s only 2 times. They’re 2 out of 3 since the 1980.

4

u/Rethious Nov 27 '22

Carter’s a bit of an outlier when it comes to presidencies. Before that, you get into other outliers like Johnson and Kennedy, where they invaded Vietnam and got killed respectively.

2

u/x_kwyjibo_x Nov 27 '22

Johnson got elected to a new term after taking over for JFK post-assassination then didn’t run for re-election. Prior to that, Truman had two nearly full terms after FDR died. FDR was in his fourth term when he died.

It was weird phrasing to say no Democrats lost re-election during incumbency since Carter when there were only two opportunities to have done so.

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u/AleroRatking Nov 27 '22

Exactly. Biden has a real good shot to remain president. The Democratic party pushing him out would make them just as much a circus as the Republicans and would really backfire.

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u/Slowcapsnowcap Nov 27 '22

Biden will be almost 82 on Election Day. And 86 at the end of another term. His age is becoming ever more apparent There’s no way he beats Desantis or anyone else not named trump in 2024.

3

u/JaesopPop Nov 27 '22

He won at 78, and the midterms just went quite well. I’m not sure “he’s old” is a super compelling reason to ask a reasonably successful incumbent to step aside for… someone?

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u/MrBoliNica Nov 27 '22

What did the dnc do in 2020 that prevented voters from choosing the nominee?

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u/PreparationExtreme86 Nov 27 '22

Are they really running with Biden again?!

We had a lot of good options in the primaries last election, Biden wasn’t even overwhelming in the lead without everyone backing down.

Agreed, step aside.

11

u/AleroRatking Nov 27 '22

He can do that in 2028 when he can't run anymore.

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u/DeliriousPrecarious Nov 27 '22

After 2016 Super delegates don’t even vote in the first round at the convention. If someone has a majority of primary/caucus delegates they win.

What you’re asking for is how the system works.

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u/yeahoner Nov 27 '22

biden didn’t do better than expected in the midterms. taking away half the population’s basic bodily autonomy did worse than expected.

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u/verrius Nov 27 '22

I mean, it's good he's not running, but I have a strong suspicion he'd be humiliated if he actually ran, and he knows it. Challenging a sitting President rarely goes well for either party, and Newsom has enough skeletons that Biden would probably even beat him in CA.

26

u/HNP4PH Nov 27 '22

Newsom got 2/3 of the vote in CA.
And 1/8 of Americans live in CA.
He is doing fine.

8

u/verrius Nov 27 '22

He got 2/3 of the vote against a Republican, because Californians know the worst Democrat is better than the best Republican. And he had a massive warchest from the stupid recall. It's been a long time since he's actually been in a competitive race where he's had to run against a real Democrat, and I'm pretty sure against any of them, he'd lose.

5

u/CottageMe Nov 27 '22

What’s a real democrat?

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u/neuroticgooner Nov 27 '22

Yes, but as a Californian, he’s not really all that popular. He won because there’s a real lack of options. The California party machine backs him and Republican Party is a complete trash fire

6

u/PM_ME_YOUR_SUNSHINE Nov 27 '22

Such a silly comment. Biden is not Cali’s pick, which is why Harris found her way into the White House even though in the age of BLM she has absolutely no reasons to be there.

Newsom will wait for Biden to announce he isn’t running again, and then step in. Because he isn’t a moron. If Biden is running again, again he won’t challenge him, because he isn’t a moron. The DNC decides if Newsom will have a shot at the White House one day, it does him no good to piss off the powers that be. Even if he did win against Biden. Because remember, Trump is the outlier, you don’t piss off the establishment if you want to be an Obama instead of a Sanders. Pragmatism is the game.

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1.6k

u/Grunblau Nov 26 '22 Silver

Based on the age of our candidates, he still has another 40-50 years to run for president…

681

u/4858693929292 Nov 26 '22

Bold of you to assume the GOP will allow elections in 40-50 years.

167

u/screwPutin69 Nov 26 '22

Sham elections. Due to gerrymandering, voter suppression and disenfranchisement they want to set up (and somewhat already have) a system that appears democratic but in reality is fixed to give the white supremacists massive built in advantage.

65

u/ExtruDR Nov 26 '22

THIS is exactly what the "plan" is for Republicans currently.

All of the cheats, hacks and advantages that they have methodically installed or exploited in bad faith are still not quite enough to over-rule the nations popular vote, so they are trying to game the system more and more.

Last election the news was like "democrats needs xxx% more to prevail" as if it's part of some sort of game, and we've accepted the rules of the game.

It isn't a game, even though it is reported as such. It is a coup, but not a coup against the other (barely tolerable) team. It is a coup against the citizens of this country. It minimized OUR voice and their accountability to US. We are the ones doing the providing the labor, the taxes, the literal country IS the people.

How everyone can "shrug" and accept the explicit undermining of our say as citizens is wild to me.

Of course our "say" is already way too limited due the the ridiculously outdated system laid out in the constitution during the gap between the European renaissance and the industrial revolution.

30

u/tevinodevost Nov 26 '22

The fact the GOP lost bigly in the midterms means that the majority of the citizens didn't accept it.

37

u/ExtruDR Nov 26 '22

They "lost" so now they can stall all federal legislation for the next two years, and use their partisans on the Supreme Court to re-write the constitution at will... Sure. They lost.

In absolute numbers MILLIONS more voted for Democrats (and have done so for nearly two decades), but somehow a "balance" is preserved by a pubic hair.

We have a hard-wired ineffective and undemocratic system of governance that is made much worse by Republican hackery. No one wants to actually "fix" it because everyone in the system makes way too much money from it (every shitty midwestern local paper and TV station cleans up during elections for example).

23

u/tevinodevost Nov 26 '22

It became undemocratic when GOP = rural and Dem = urban (this was not always the case, not even before Y2K) because the EC then tilted when it did.

The solution is to find a way to break the propaganda the GOP has on the rural swathes. The GOP propaganda is like a drug, and that drug keeps people making the same bad choices.

Find a way to make 'em go cold turkey.

21

u/4858693929292 Nov 26 '22

Or just reduce the power of rural areas by having congressional districts be roughly equal in population within the same state.

7

u/ExtruDR Nov 26 '22

I think that there are multiple major and compounding factors.

Definitely fixing House districts and gerrymandering would go a huge way, but the Senate is basically a redundant and massively anti-democratic body; as is the electoral college, etc. etc.

2

u/CaptainTripps82 Nov 26 '22

Until they win huge in the next one. Can we stop with the assumptions that we have any idea what our fellow Americans want? Whatever that is today is almost certainly not what it will be in 2 years anyway

3

u/_MMAgod Nov 27 '22

we're not willfully shrugging it of.. we're just dumb af.. generally speaking

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u/Beneficial-Usual1776 Nov 26 '22 edited Nov 26 '22

it’s been sham elections since mass incarceration put a dent in the vote-backing of many of the majority black communities in the south (now long broken, just look at the shitwater situation in Jackson, MS* they haven’t had reliably clean water for the entirety of the 21st century in the US)

18

u/Onwisconsin42 Nov 26 '22

MS is Mississippi, MI is Michigan.

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u/Spara-Extreme California Nov 26 '22

You guys still saying that after we took a bunch of states and reduced the GOP lead to nothing in the house?

Clearly gerrymandering isn’t the end all be all. Organizing and voting is still the most important thing

3

u/Vyar New Jersey Nov 26 '22

Gerrymandering is only half the problem when it comes to sorting out the GOP's electoral fuckery. Voter intimidation at polling places is also a factor, and perhaps most significantly, we must also consider the way GOP state legislatures have deliberately under-served specific districts by not providing adequate numbers of polling places or voting machines for each location. It crushes the minority vote much more effectively than simply gerrymandering.

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u/Alarming_Eggplant Nov 26 '22

This just in: President Rittenhouse has won in another landslide victory, earning 110% of the votes

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u/Cresta1994 Nov 26 '22

This is sickening, but plausible.

If Timothy McVeigh was still alive, he'd probably be the incoming Speaker.

9

u/micphi Nov 26 '22

This comment was a hard one to not downvote.

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u/sixtus_clegane119 Canada Nov 26 '22

“Red states are more Christian so the serve 2 extra electoral college votes”

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u/technothrasher Nov 26 '22

Come on now, you know that the Christian Government Advisory Council has no actual say in the vote. Their advisors are appointed by the government simply to help the people make the correct, moral choices when voting.

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u/anotherone121 Nov 26 '22

North Korea light or full-on Iran?

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u/the_simurgh Kentucky Nov 26 '22

bold of you to assume there will be enough numbers for even the republican election cheating to help them.

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u/stemnewsjunkie Texas Nov 26 '22

You really don't understand how they plan to cheat

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u/Ballz_McGinty Nov 26 '22

Also, keyword is challenged... if Biden decides not to run?

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u/elconquistador1985 Nov 26 '22

More like he can't run for another 40 or 50 years. Too young.

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u/Im_Literally_a_Bird Nov 26 '22

Yeah, thats what allowing geriatrics to tun has done. People dont see their 40s and 50s as prime age to tun for president, now its 70s lol wtf happened lol.

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u/alexbeeee Nov 26 '22 edited Nov 26 '22

Meaning Biden intends to run in 2024.Newsom already admitted in interviews that he wouldn’t challenge Biden, but if he chose to not run that he’d then put in his bid for the presidency

Edit for typo

16

u/Writer10 California Nov 26 '22

Californian here. This is what I think will happen.

111

u/RunninADorito Nov 26 '22

This is such horse shit. Biden is TOO FUCKING OLD.

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22

Perhaps, but the sitting president pretty much always gets right of first refusal. I don’t think Biden should run again, but until he says he’s not, Newsom’s doing the right thing here by not giving the Right ammo to fuel stories of Democratic discord.

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u/PleasantWay7 Nov 26 '22

Dems should have thought about that in the 2020 Primary. You can’t boot him for that reason on a reelection bid. It will fracture the party and make Dems weak in the General.

It is Biden unless he decides he doesn’t want it.

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u/intellifone Nov 27 '22

If Biden decides he isn’t running, he needs to start propping up a whole bunch of dems who could run. He needs to start singing about Newsom, Buttegeig, Porter, etc.

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u/hitmyspot Nov 27 '22

And maybe considering a new running mate...

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u/Writer10 California Nov 26 '22

Californian here. This is what I think will happen.

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u/izziefans Nov 27 '22

No. Biden will not run in the end. But he is not going to make an announcement now and show his cards. He will only announce when he has decided which viable candidates he is willing to support and more importantly, how the playing field looks from Republican side.

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u/Saul-Funyun American Expat Nov 26 '22

We JUST HAD an election. The POTUS election is two years from now. This perpetual campaign mode is absolutely insane.

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u/ChronosBlitz Nov 26 '22

To be fair the shadow primary starts immediately after the midterms, this isn’t anything new.

Hell, Obama starting building up support the second he was sworn in as a senator in January 2005.

31

u/Saul-Funyun American Expat Nov 26 '22

This is insane, you realize, yes?

38

u/ChronosBlitz Nov 26 '22

Eh, I’m a little indifferent.

I don’t think you’re wrong to have that opinion, I’m just not sure I really care.

14

u/Saul-Funyun American Expat Nov 26 '22

If we’re in constant campaign mode, when do we have time to legislate?

Who does this benefit?

23

u/ChronosBlitz Nov 26 '22

Congress already only meets for about a third of the year. 2/3 of the week they aren’t legislating anyway.

Still, meeting 180 somewhat days of the years to legislate is actually far more than it used to meet.

Hell, the constitution says they only have to convene once a year.

5

u/Saul-Funyun American Expat Nov 26 '22

Did you know that other countries campaign for like two months, max?

Think about who our system benefits. All this constant donating, constant ad buying, constant fighting fighting fighting. We spend all our money on this, and are told to keep spending. We measure candidates’ viability by how much money they raise every month. For years at a time.

30

u/EvadingBan42 Nov 26 '22

Why are you preaching to us like we don’t already know? Everyone here knows the political situation in America.

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u/Saul-Funyun American Expat Nov 26 '22

Not according to the responses I tend to get.

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u/EllisHughTiger Nov 27 '22

Well yeah, that's what the election industrial complex and media want. A whole lot of people make some damn good money off politicking and talking non-stop. Of course they'll push everyone to spend more, more, more!

Trump gave them a good knock by coming in under budget by simply going out and talking to people.

Hillary's campaign was full of salaried yes-men more concerned with their paychecks than staying objective.

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u/nosamiam28 Nov 26 '22

It also makes it damned hard to indict presidential candidates!

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22

Cable news networks.

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u/TheFakeChiefKeef Nov 27 '22

It is insane, but when else are they going to do it?

It takes time to build up a base of support, which includes voter, current elected officials, media figures, celebs, etc. etc.

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u/Richandler Nov 26 '22

Well, untill a significant majority that achieves some dramatic reform is put in place, it's going to be that way. And at the end of the day, people and should be involved in this all the time.

The idea of seperating politics from daily life is a billion/republican talking point. They won't you out of the process so they can run it. You think billionaires ever stop trying to buy their government?

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u/InscrutableScruple Nov 26 '22

I really wish we could switch a parliamentary system with proportional representation.

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u/iabyajyiv California Nov 26 '22

It would insane to expect everyone to follow some rule you just madeup. The reality is the other parties are already making their plans, so Dems might as well do so too so that they'll be prepared.

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u/thatnameagain Nov 26 '22

This is about him NOT announcing a campaign.

But still it makes sense that perpetual campaigning is a thing given how people vote. If you’re not in the headlines for 2 years straight, you’re chances are t great.

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u/Saul-Funyun American Expat Nov 26 '22

It doesn’t make sense. It’s absurd. The whole system is designed to keep us from having any effect.

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u/thatnameagain Nov 27 '22

The perpetual campaign gives people more, not less input. Campaigning means constantly getting voter feedback from polls, grassroots, etc.

At the end of the day all that matters is who people vote for.

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u/8to24 Nov 26 '22 Gold

American Rescue Plan, Infrastructure Bill, PACT Act, first Gun Control legislation in a generation, Inflation Reduction Act, Micro Chip bill, and action on student debt relief. Biden has gotten a lot done. Of course there is more to do and some of what's been done could have been better.

With Biden in the Whitehouse Democrats just had a far better midterms than most imagined was possible. Democrats won critical statehouse positions AZ, MI, and WI. Democrats held the Senate and Republican control in the House is extremely thin.

Presently Republicans are fracturing. A never again Trump coalition appears to be forming. Meanwhile McConnell has lost a good amount of his mojo. It would be foolish for Democrats to cast incumbency aside in 2024.

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u/Dewahll Indiana Nov 26 '22

Yet I still see so many people touting that “he’s an idiot” with no explanation. I just don’t get it. He really has gotten shit done.

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u/fastinserter Minnesota Nov 26 '22

Over Thanksgiving my mother started reading a transcript of some off the cuff remarks by Biden as a reason for why he is 'senile'. Not only did he just sound like a person who struggles with a speech impediment, but also she skipped paragraphs so it sounded like he was talking about the sacrifice of chefs, not of marines. Anyway my father told me he's lying and he's never had a speech impediment, then we got into a large argument about how it's because of too many dollars in the economy that's why inflation exists but he also declared that if there was 0% taxes or 100% taxes it would have no impact on the amount of money in the economy nor inflation, nor does supply issues (even though his quote was "too many dollars chasing too few goods") after I said the roots were from the trump tax cut ("that was like 5 years ago why would it have any impact") and supply chain disruption/Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is because inflation is only Biden's fault, he's a senile old man who makes up how his children died and how he has a speech impediment.

It was like arguing with my 2 year old, who thankfully started yelling from her room for me so I had to leave and go deal with a normal sized toddler.

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u/BeautifulPraline858 Nov 26 '22

I’ve seen less “he’s an idiot” these days and more “he’s too old”. I think Biden’s done a great job, especially recently, but it feels like the majority of the people I speak to are tired of seeing our representation at the highest level being old white men.

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u/Poolofcheddar Nov 26 '22

Age is certainly not a limiting factor if you're in good health and can effectively govern.

The (West) German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer was first elected in 1949 and was only expected to be a placeholder leader. His tenure in power is only third in length for modern Germany after Kohl and Merkel's 16-year runs. He retired in 1963 at the age of 87 after putting together the building blocks creating the modern German state.

That being said, he was pretty much pressured to retire by his coalition partners mid-way through his last term as part of the coalition agreement due to his age. He led his party for three more years until he died at age 91.

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u/BeautifulPraline858 Nov 26 '22

I don’t disagree; however, it seems that their argument centers less on effectiveness and more on demographic. Aside from Bernie (who has always been radically left, such as it is), the growing feeling amongst the young is that the time of our government being made up of white men over 60 should be over and done with.

An enormous reason Biden was so unpopular and only barely won was because a lot of our younger crowd dubbed him a closet republican, being conservative in the past and generally moving over to being moderate left. Him not being a vocal advocate for big changes along with his age made for an unhappy candidate for a demographic experiencing unprecedented levels of debt and mental health crises.

Obligatory repetition of my main comment’s sentiment that I do think Biden has been doing well. This is merely an attempt to convey the feelings of a large percentage of the 18-35 demographic, more so at the 2020 election than now. But I do think that if Biden runs in 2024 he won’t receive a 100% warm welcome back from the 18-35s, who would vastly prefer someone like.. AOC, just as an example.

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u/quantic56d Nov 26 '22

TBF with everything going on with Russia and Congress I can't imagine a better President to have in there than Biden. He has decades of experience and its all during Putin's reign.

3

u/destijl-atmospheres Nov 26 '22

I've heard good things about his Memoirs: 1945-53 book.

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u/Nohface Nov 26 '22

They’ll say anything, there’s nothing to get.

Take a handful of shit and randomly fling it at walls. That’s the current republican attack campaign. Bonus points if it’s a gay wall or groomer shit.

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u/KaraAnneBlack Nov 26 '22

Nothing like a stammer to get you labeled as senile s/… least that is what I have heard.

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u/Eldetorre Nov 26 '22

It would NOT be foolish to cast incumbency aside. It would be an opportunity to capitalize on momentum with a candidate that would get potentially 8 more years in office. Are you saying the Dems can't find anyone in the party that would take the existing policies forward while also being a bit younger and more energetic? No single person is indispensible. Biden should cast ego aside and be part of the process of finding a better successor and back them in the primaries.

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u/stillestwaters North Carolina Nov 26 '22

Who would possibly be as popular and known across the country as the sitting president, though? We can mark Newsom off that potential list now - who else is there?

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u/SurprisedJerboa Nov 27 '22 edited Nov 27 '22

Biden is doing a fantastic job with helping Ukraine

I have a hard time believing anyone else could support them as well as Biden, considering his past experience in the White House, his work with Congressional intelligence Committees and significant, lengthy, respectable political work on the international level.

Yeah he is old, but I don’t think anyone could accomplish as much as him given the current international climate

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u/mindfu Nov 26 '22

I don't see any other candidate who will get more votes than Biden in 2024. Putting aside the person with the best chance to win, when the GOP is in the grip of deadly morons, is not a worthwhile risk.

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u/Gold-Information9245 Nov 27 '22

its a stupid idea that has no real world basis. The incumbency bonus is huge.

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u/8to24 Nov 26 '22

Incumbency comes with an undeniable statistical advantage. You are arguing Democrats should ignore that advantage. It isn't smart.

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u/piperonyl Nov 26 '22

I think this is outdated thinking. The president's bully pulpit isn't nearly as powerful as it was a decade ago. News is generated 144 characters at a time or 30 second videos. Not press conferences.

I dont think the advantages outweight the negatives of his age and perceived incompetency.

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u/Deceptiveideas Nov 27 '22

It’s not just about the bully pulpit but a large amount of voters pledging to support whoever is in power now. I know plenty of people who weren’t a fan of trump but believed it was ‘patriotic’ to support him again.

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u/Eldetorre Nov 26 '22

Meaningless. Designated successor with the FULL backing of current incumbent would confer most of the same advantage.

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22

As long as it isn’t Harris

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u/slymm Nov 26 '22

The major problem is if Biden steps aside there's a portion of the Democratic party who believes Kamala should be handed the nomination. Not a big portion, but big enough to cause issues

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u/Smoaktreess Massachusetts Nov 26 '22

She wouldn’t win a primary though.

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u/Noiserawker Nov 26 '22

Biden did terrible in primaries prior to being VP, and he ran more than once.

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u/Smoaktreess Massachusetts Nov 27 '22

Biden became more popular as being VP with Obama though. All the memes about their friendship make him more likable to the public. Harris hasn’t got a publicity boost IMO. I know she’s been breaking ties but hasn’t been very public except her abortion speech which was less than stellar.

If they are gonna nominate a women, I would rather have Big Gretch.

3

u/SassTheFash Washington Nov 26 '22

If 2020 is anything to go by…

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u/yellekc Guam Nov 26 '22

Are you saying the Dems can't find anyone in the party that would take the existing policies forward while also being a bit younger and more energetic?

Name someone you think would have a better shot of winning.

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u/Eldetorre Nov 26 '22

They have time to find someone. So tired of cult of personality.

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u/yellekc Guam Nov 26 '22

So your answer is "someone". I mean they would have to probably be at least somewhat well known to have a chance. You can't think of anyone better than Biden? In that case, it will probably be Biden.

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u/Eldetorre Nov 26 '22

Two years to make someone well known.

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22

[deleted]

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u/Cheeky_Hustler Nov 26 '22

"Incumbency advantage" is tied to the politician, not the party. Getting a new presidential candidate would be casting incumbency advantage aside.

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u/ricktor67 Nov 26 '22

Right? Biden is old, too old(was too old when he was VP). There should be mandatory retiring for gov officials at whatever the age of social security is.

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u/KnowsAboutMath Nov 26 '22

There should be mandatory retiring for gov officials at whatever the age of social security is.

I worry this would lead to Congress continuously increasing the age for Social Security eligibility.

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u/ediblebadger Nov 26 '22

I think the Biden administration should be credited with a pretty successful policy agenda. The climate provisions in the IRA are a huge piece of legislation!

But this comment really glosses over several inconvenient facts, that is, that Biden personally is about as unpopular as Trump was at this point in his presidency, that an even bigger winner than Democrats of the 2022 midterms was Ron DeSantis, that Biden will be 82 come 2024 and VP Harris as next in line of succession is not currently especially popular herself.

On the other hand, i agree that throwing it up to an open primary is also risky, so maybe on net it's still better to go in for Biden. But honestly none of the Dem options look particularly strong to me and the only saving grace i can see at all is the hope that trump will manage to split the party enough to blow it for them--which seems likely but shouldn't be taken as a given i think

8

u/voidsrus Nov 26 '22

i’ve been watching the 538 net approvals tracker because it gives you comparisons with all other modern presidents at this point in his term, he objectively comes up so short of really most of them in approvals.

given those numbers, i think the republicans’ abortion push deserves more credit for midterms results than biden… if that election were about him, the dems would have even less power than they’re going to

2

u/EvadingBan42 Nov 26 '22

No shit. Still doesn’t mean Biden isn’t the best candidate.

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u/voidsrus Nov 26 '22

if biden is the best candidate and his polls are shit, what’s the party going to do when he’s gone? they’ve hardly made much of an effort to build a next generation up into leadership roles so they can actually run a credible campaign for president

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u/ZakMckrack3n Nov 26 '22

What does that say about the other top running Dems then?

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u/Vikingninja721 Nov 26 '22

I really hope you’re right, but I have some concerns.

First, while Biden has absolutely accomplished a lot of meaningful legislation, the house going to Republicans will slow down, if not outright stall, any legislation, and given the goldfish memory American voters have they may judge Biden more from 2 years of inaction than his 2 years of legislating.

There’s also the concern, honestly my biggest one, is that inflation + the economy is not going to be in a great spot in 2024, due to factors largely outside Biden’s control, but voters will nonetheless hold him accountable for the state of the economy, which they may not for a non-incumbant Democrat.

And finally, sorta the elephant in the room, is his age. Biden is OLD, and if Republicans end up fielding DeSantis voters may, and not entirely unreasonably, feel that the younger candidate may be better suited for the presidency. Not to mention Biden’s a known quantity, and not very exciting of a candidate for lots of younger voters.

Obviously this will all depend on what happens these next few years, but I was really hoping Biden would step down and throw his weight behind a younger candidate.

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u/repalec Nov 26 '22

And Biden absolutely can, I just don't think it's the sort of thing he should come out and say this early. Middle to late 2023, once the Republican debates are in proper swing, that would be a good time to announce he's stepping away in favor of a new candidate. Ideally, a Newsom or a Mark Kelly - that sorta folk-hero Democrat who has a relative age advantage (being 55 and 58 respectively versus Biden, 80 and Trump, 76).

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u/8to24 Nov 26 '22

McCarthy is an idiot and his caucus is fractured. I suspect House Republicans will spend the next two years embarrassing themselves.

DeSantis cannot win. There is no point is even thinking about DeSantis. If Trump doesn't get the nomination Trump will burn the GOP to ash. Trump has a few million loyal supporters. If the GOP deny Trump the nomination Trump will ensure those loyal supporters don't vote for any Republicans ever again in their lives.

Biden is old but the Administrative Branch isn't one man. Biden just proved during the midterms that less is more. Biden didn't fly all over the country campaigning. Biden didn't give stirring speeches or hold huge rallies. Biden just sat in the white house and let the DNC worry about campaigning and it worked. Biden is successful removing himself. While the Right is deepening themselves in personality cults (team Trump vs Team DeSantis) Democrats are a full robust party not loyal to any individual.

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u/Vikingninja721 Nov 26 '22

You make some good points that I largely agree with, but I still find myself feeling uncertain about the inevitability of your positions.

I definitely agree about your point about McCarthy being incompetent and the causus being fractured. I doubt he’ll ever get his party on-board with any sort of united policy agenda. However, if Trump’s impeachments are any indication, it seems the modern Republican party is united against Democrats. Due to ideology and the status quo being kinda garbage the onus is on Democrats to pass legislation, and part of me wonders if it’ll be easier for McCarthy to get his base to vote against everything Democrats bring up than it would be for him to get his caucus to pass anything.

I also think you’re absolutely right about Trump being willing to burn the GOP to the ground if he doesn’t get nominated, but I don’t think DeSantis losing to Trump is a foregone conclusion. These midterms have left Trump in his most politically vulnerable position yet, and even if Republicans like Trump I also know they like winning and “owning the libs,” two things I think DeSantis could represent in their eyes. The right-wing propoganda machine has 2 years to ween their viewers off Trump and start getting their viewers more excited about DeSantis (although whether Trump will let right-wing media ignore him, and how much influence right-wing media has over their viewers vs. how much they’re caught up in a vicious feedback loop is certainly up for debate).

Finally, I agree with your assessment of the midterms, and I give Biden and his administration a lot of credit for how they approached the midterms. That said, I think presidential elections are a much different beast, and Biden won’t have the luxury of being in the background when he himself is the candidate. Almost by definition he’ll need to be at the center of his campaign. With how messed up a lot of these electoral maps are I think independents are going to be huge in the outcome of 2024, and while I think Biden’s weaknesses as a candidate were easy to overlook when he was facing Trump, if the Republican nominee is less overtly incompetent I’m not sure what the outcome will be.

Edit: Grammer

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u/8to24 Nov 26 '22

I am not convinced DeSantis even runs. The party knows it would be a civil war that would hurt the part across the whole ballot.

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u/pissoffa Nov 26 '22

DeSantis cannot win

You are lying to yourself. Anything with an R next to it can win.

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u/8to24 Nov 26 '22

Not if Trump convinces a few million of his MAGA supporters not to vote R.

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22

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u/mindfu Nov 26 '22

It would be far more selfish and irresponsible for him to just step aside, and we lose our best shot at keeping the GOP out of the White House.

We have to keep the GOP out of the White House. They have currently lost their minds, and can no longer be trusted with power. If they ever could be trusted after Nixon.

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u/stillestwaters North Carolina Nov 26 '22

Regardless of good he has done is wild. It would be the end of his turn, how would it be irresponsible and selfish?

I guess you can argue selfish, but what do you want him to do? Not run and announce Harris as his pick? Dems are done for in that case.

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u/8to24 Nov 26 '22

Irresponsible? A president isn't a King. There is an entire administrative branch. If Biden died from old age there is a structure in place.

Selfish and irresponsible is the personality cults on the right that rely on individuals.

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u/voidsrus Nov 26 '22

if biden died of old age, making harris the president, her absolutely wild unpopularity would set the democrats back decades

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u/piperonyl Nov 26 '22

You act like the majority of americans care about his accomplishments. All they will see for the next 2 years are ads showing him slurring his speech and stumbling all over the place.

His competency is on the ballot not his achievements.

This is why i think we need young blood.

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u/trudat Nov 26 '22

What if this is despite Biden, and not because of him?

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u/The_Yarichin_Bitch Nov 26 '22

It's because of him, even Obama never said "fuck it, I'm doing this thing and people need to help me" this much lmao.

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u/CCJones56 Georgia Nov 26 '22 edited Nov 26 '22

This is why Dems dont win more. They think correlation implies causation. Regardless of how much Biden has accomplished, the reason why Republicans didn't drown the Dems in this election is because of Roe V Wade and the fact that election deniers were on ballets everywhere. This victory had nothing to do with Biden accomplishments.

If the Dems deliver up Biden who can barely string together 5 coherent sentences without a prompter, that idiot DeSantis may be your next President.

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u/8to24 Nov 26 '22

and that idiot DeSantis may be your next President.

If Republicans don't give Trump the nomination Trump will ensure a few million of his loyal supporters never vote Democrat ever again. It is comical to me that anyone thinks DeSantis has a shot. The nomination belongs to Trump or else Trump will burn the GOP down.

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u/stillestwaters North Carolina Nov 26 '22 edited Nov 26 '22

I’m with you, actually. If Trump is pushed out there’s no way his most loyal supporters will vote for anyone who Trump doesn’t tell them to, even then - I’m betting a lot of them don’t believe in the process enough to vote anyway if Trump isn’t on the ballot.

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u/mindfu Nov 26 '22

Of course he won't. Newsom probably didn't even need to say it, it's just the media is so obsessed with the idea that Biden might not run again.

And he's going to run again, and Harris will be his running mate.

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u/leather-and-boobs Nov 26 '22

Your opinion on an 80 year old at the helm? Maybe it's time for some youth?

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u/Imfrom2030 Nov 26 '22 Take My Energy

Honestly, Biden doesn't really do very much of anything that worries me. He's an incredibly safe choice at a time that could benefit from stability. He is already the president, he has passed lots of popular legislation, and he has very successfully converted NATO from a declining power to a tight-knit dominating one.

If Biden thinks he can do 4 more years, let him. I think Newsom will benefit from another 4 years of solidifying himself as the party's future.

I'd vote for a 105 year old Bernie on his deathbed before I'd vote for Trump. Age doesn't matter much tbh. Vote for the message, not the demographic.

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u/mindfu Nov 26 '22

It's definitely time for us to not have the Republicans get back in the White House. Otherwise we might not even have a country for a younger person to be president in.

I am for any candidate who will get more votes than Biden running as an incumbent. But they better show up soon.

So far every person mentioned either isn't running, or was already defeated by Biden in the primaries.

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u/CaptainTripps82 Nov 26 '22

Why aren't Democrats obsessed with the idea that he can't run again. Like come the hell on, this is the best we can do?

Jesus Christ we should be propping up the next in liners, not demanding loyalty pledges to an octagenarian

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u/thatnameagain Nov 27 '22

The answer, whether you like it or not, is because the democrats just had a pretty good midterm under Biden's leadership. That's basically the answer.

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u/mindfu Nov 27 '22 edited Nov 27 '22

Why aren't Democrats obsessed with the idea that he can't run again.

Because Democrats are correctly focused on the number one priority - winning the white house again in 2024. So we can at least undo the damage the last GOP president did.

Everything is appropriately secondary to that need.

No known potential Democratic candidate who is running in 2024 will do better than Biden.

So, it's Biden.

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u/dravenonred Nov 26 '22

Considering that challenging an incumbent president in a primary literally never works out well this is a good call.

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u/Hot-Bint Nov 26 '22

Exactly. All he would do is build ill will. He can wait. He has time

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u/sloopslarp Nov 26 '22

Yeah, that has backfired literally every time.

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u/dravenonred Nov 26 '22

For real, your best possible scenario is a "two popes" situation where one guy is the leader in terms of being the nominee and the other is the leader in terms of weilding all the executive power for the rest of the term.

And that's if you two don't blast each other into not being able to win the general.

And that's if you can even compete with incumbency advantage and all the people turning on you as a traitor in said primary.

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u/was_and_wasnt Florida Nov 26 '22

Smart. Challenging Biden would hurt both of them. He's young enough to wait. And savvy enough to get even stronger politically before his run.

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u/_SpaceTimeContinuum Nov 26 '22

He's doing a great job as governor too so it's good for California to keep him for a few more years.

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u/BBHugo Nov 26 '22

Amen to that

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u/was_and_wasnt Florida Nov 26 '22

Agreed.

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u/MaximumEffort433 Maryland Nov 26 '22

Democrats in array? That can't be right.

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u/InscrutableScruple Nov 26 '22

And the Republicans are eating each other. What kinda topsy turvy upside down world is this?

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u/scribblingsim California Nov 27 '22

I’d vote for a fucking corpse over a fascist Republican. Talking about Biden’s age when the alternative will most likely be a fascist dictator is just stupid.

People need to stop hoping for unicorns and get real to fight against the coming fight with fascism.

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u/Free_Breakfast687 Nov 26 '22

He can challenge him in the primaries all he wants, but I am voting for the winner.

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u/altruisticlamp Nov 26 '22

Biden shouldn’t run, he’s doing a fantastic job but the optics of an 82 year old man running for President just aren’t good. He should put all of his support behind Newsom and let Newsom wipe the floor with DeSantis/Trump.

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u/SilverDesperado Nov 27 '22

biden has not decided to run yet but i’m hoping he steps aside and let’s newsom win after the trump desantis disaster

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u/No-Independence-6842 Nov 27 '22

Newsom would be an excellent choice for Dems

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u/gothstonerbabe Nov 26 '22

It would be so cool if Biden served one term and endorsed newsom. I think that's a winning strategy for the Dems.

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u/kambleton Nov 26 '22

Honestly, Biden has not done nearly as shitty as I thought. If Kanye, Trump, DeSantis and Pence are all vying for the chair, let them eat each other alive and Brandon coast on the chaos and his good work. Let Newsom continue the good work in Cali.

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u/Richandler Nov 26 '22

That's usually what happens when members of a party are on the same page.

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u/AleroRatking Nov 26 '22

It makes sense. He can easily wait 4 more years and make the move.

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u/DevoidHT Ohio Nov 27 '22

Newsom definitely will make a play for the White House eventually. As long as Biden appears to be seeking reelection, very few people will challenge him this cycle though. If he decides against it, I can see the field open quite a bit.

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u/NotAnotherEmpire Nov 26 '22

Well that's shocking. An incumbent president has never been defeated by primary challengers.

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u/Pardon_my_baconess Nov 26 '22

I understand the advantage an incumbent has in an election.

I feel Biden had one job - coalesce the Democratic vote in order to defeat Trump in 2018. While Joe has had some impressive legislative victories, his advanced age is a major concern.

However, if Biden were to run again (and be re-elected), he would be 82 at the start of his second term. That age is unprecedented for a US President at the beginning of a term - and is quite a concern for many voters - including Democrats.

While I support a run by Newsome, perhaps an alternative would be to add him to the ticket as VP. Sucks for Harris, but her numbers are horrible.

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u/Noiserawker Nov 26 '22

The polls saying Biden and Kamala are so unpopular are the same ones that predicted the red wave, stop buying the MSM bs narratives. And dumping Kamala is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard of politically. You want to eye poke the democratic party's base? Give a big FU to their most reliable voting bloc?!? That would absolutely be a slam dunk for Rs to win the Presidency.

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u/voidsrus Nov 26 '22

harris didn’t have a reliable voting bloc of her own, that’s why she had to drop & endorse before her home state’s primary which she would’ve lost badly and had her career pronounced dead

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u/justforthearticles20 Nov 26 '22

He should consider being Biden's new running mate though.

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u/basicbatch Nov 26 '22

But the optics of replacing a woman of color with a white man

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u/justforthearticles20 Nov 26 '22

Nobody wants Harris becoming president upon Biden's death.

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u/platinum_toilet Nov 26 '22

Newsom Told the White House He Won’t Challenge Biden

This is not a surprise. President Biden is the incumbent and can run for president again.

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u/DeezNeezuts Nov 27 '22

Newsom and and Whitmer

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u/AceSmeghead Nov 26 '22

Won’t challenge Biden… but what if Joe doesn’t run for a second term? Harris doesn’t have a chance in hell but Newsom is still young for a politician and very charismatic. Enough of a shit disturber to piss off the ruby red repubs, but not so much that center Dems have a problem with it. With him needling GOP govs of other states I would not be surprised if he’s planning a 2028 run (yes, he said he’s not interested but everyone says that… I recall back during the election Biden said he would not run for a second term… politicians lie.)

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u/Eldetorre Nov 26 '22

Biden can't pound his chest. Approval is still pretty low, and age related decline is a damned fact. Stepping down gracefully would automatically improve his approval and that approval would rub off on a carefully chosen successor.

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u/buzzedewok Nov 27 '22

And it’s hopefully not Harris.

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u/Eldetorre Nov 27 '22

Carefully chosen should rule that out.

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u/Eagles20222 Nov 26 '22 edited Nov 26 '22

Dudes gotta get single payer going in California or rebuild their higher Ed system Reagan destroyed if he wants to stand out from the 100 identical white guys in the 2028 Dem Primary.

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u/Spam_Hand Nov 27 '22

I like Newsom and I think many here would agree in general.

But if we're thinking about how to hold major offices, I just think "California" is polarizing asf to republicans in a way that would motivate people to vote against him too hard.

There would have to be some SERIOUSLY good messaging (on Obama "hope" levels or more) to beat someone from the other side.

I hate to think that way, I would obviously vote for him. But I'm not confident in any way he would have a good chance, and that's for all the worst reasons.

I have, however, been pushing that California is about to possibly surpass Germany in total GDP at number 4 in the world. I have one republican friend (a good faith republican in all honesty) who was seriously intrigued by that fact.

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u/SG420123 Nov 27 '22

I really do believe Biden should step aside and let a Governor like Newsome or possible dark horse candidate in Whitmer run for president in 2024.

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u/superduper98989898 Nov 26 '22

That’s stupid, they should primary him. If he can’t stand up to a another democrat than how are they going to hold up to the circus show running against them.

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22 edited Nov 26 '22

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u/epistaxis64 Oregon Nov 26 '22

No one is fixing homelessness without allocating billions of dollars towards it

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22 edited Nov 26 '22

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u/Noiserawker Nov 26 '22

Blaming state and local governments is ridiculous, it's a national issue tied directly to the terrible income inequality and lack of mental health resources and safety nets for families experiencing financial emergencies. California is doing a lot but it has to be addressed nationally and that is only accomplished if we can crush the GOP.

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u/InscrutableScruple Nov 26 '22

I keep saying this. There is not a single place in this country that doesn't have a huge homelessness problem right now. It is clearly a national issue, yet we keep treating it like a local one. California might be capable of figuring out housing for all of the people who are there now, but that's not going to stop other states from literally bussing their homeless people to California.

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u/Noiserawker Nov 26 '22

Which they have and will do, also due to weather a lot of homeless come here on their own rather than freeze to death

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u/sloopslarp Nov 26 '22

I'll settle for any functioning adult who listens to scientists/experts and promises to protect reproductive autonomy.

For Republicans, the bar is so low, it's underground. The Dems candidate does not need to be a magical perfect unicorn with zero foibles.

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u/mindfu Nov 26 '22

Biden will be running in 2024, and Harris will be his running mate, and he will win.

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u/ShadowSwipe Nov 26 '22

It's bullshit. He should. The younger generation deserves, if nothing else, a chance at a voice. Stop paying heed with the nonsense "it's not your time yet" that goes on and on. That's why all our leadership is 80 years old.

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u/EOE97 Nov 26 '22

Biden will have incumbency advantage and hasn't done too bad in his govt. The democrats are safer with Biden than the other guy.

But then again Biden said he wouldn't run a second term if elected so that will be him going against his own words.

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u/Plow_King Nov 26 '22 edited Nov 26 '22

boy, the comments in here are a hoot. i can certainly tell some folks know zip about elections and politics, it's all about the "feels".

let's at least get closer to the election before we worry about this shit.

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22

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u/Freedom-Lover-4564 Nov 26 '22

I am disappointed that Biden is seemingly running again without challenge from the younger crowd. He did state during the 2020 campaign that he sees himself as a "transitional figure" that would step aside after one term. That's why I voted for him, and now feel like I got hoodwinked.

We need to allow the younger, fresher generation to take the reins of power. I'm 60, and want some change, thank you.

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u/t_mac1 Nov 26 '22

2028 President Newsom it is.

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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '22

Big mistake. He’s the one to secure a democrat win in 2024

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u/Insertnameherebois United Kingdom Nov 26 '22

U should go with a one-two punch of Newsom/Fetterman in 2024. That’ll be an absolute game changer

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u/ThePuzzledPanda Nov 26 '22

The problem with Fetterman running is he has a senate seat in a swing state locked up for 6 years. It doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Dems to put that seat back up for contest. Plus he can probably achieve more as a Senator than as VP.

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u/bakerfredricka Nov 26 '22

Yeah Fetterman is great where he's currently at!

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